I'm a high school football coach and that shapes how I view these prospects. On offense the name of the game is get the ball into the best player's hands. In high school this can be simplified easier and is the reason that the best player often plays Quarterback. Versatility is at a paramount and a player's ability to create with the ball in their hands often determines how often they get the ball. In short, if a player's coach doesn't work to get the ball in their hands often, it's a red flag. The player either isn't versatile (must lineup in one position and/or can only win/create one way) and/or the coach believes that the ball is best in another player's hands. I value a player's share of the team's total production more than raw numbers. On tape I look for a player to "win" in a variety of ways (full route trees, against multiple coverages, on all three levels of the field, etc.)
Before we get started with individual breakdowns I would like to provide some perspective on what I value in a Wide Receiver prospect. It's important to evaluate each prospect as an individual and not evaluate based on comparisons or factoring in the helmet/uniform. To be a top prospect you must have at least one elite skill (route running, speed, etc.) Measurables should always be used with context and if it doesn't match the tape it becomes seriously de-valued. Data trends aren't everything but they should be applied to help keep you on the straight and narrow. For example, No receiver that has ran a 4.30 second 40 yard dash or better has ever produced a 1,000 yards or had 65 receptions in a single season. So fair or not Henry Ruggs III gets a little bit of a downgrade for running too fast, as dumb as that sounds.
1. Jerry Jeudy: 6'1" 193 lbs
Player Comp: Stefon Diggs
Jeudy checks all of the boxes. He has produced at a high level consistently and in the biggest games even with a loaded receiving corps at Alabama. He is not yet 21 years old and already exhibits elite level route running. His polish truly shines through his in-route release combinations. He displays them all and their counters. A master a gaining leverage and getting into the DB's blindspot. He shows great speed into his cuts and uses minimal steps getting out of them. He clocked a 4.45 second 40 yard dash at the combine, verifying the speed you see on tape. The combination of big time production, technical skill, and explosive athletic ability make Jerry Jeudy the number one receiver on my board.
Question marks about the talented receiver include, short area quickness, his physicality, and some questionable drops.
2. CeeDee Lamb: 6'2" 198 lbs
Comp: Deandre Hopkins
Lamb is a TD machine with 32 touchdowns total, 25 of which from his last two years. He ripped off an impressive 21.4 yards per catch in 2019. Lamb shows great hands and extension on all routes. He has a particular deftness for back shoulder catches, jump balls, and contested catches. His production only seems to increase the bigger the game is, absolutely torching Texas, LSU, and Alabama. He is just the kind of player you want to bet on. He has special knack of gaining yards after the catch and breaking tackles. CeeDee has "it". He is a smooth striding athlete that brings a unique ability to alter his tempo within his routes. Lamb is explosive at all three levels.
He does have some question marks however, including sharpness in and out of his breaks, slender build, he will likely need to have more purpose to his routes and releases to beat NFL defenses and especially man coverage.
3. Brandon Aiyuk: 6'0" 205 lbs
Player Comp: Emmanuel Sanders
Aiyuk is a lethal weapon both as a receiver and as a returner. The Junior College transfer averaged 31.9 yards per kick return, 16.1 yards per punt return, and 18.3 yards per catch. The compact explosive athlete is my guilty pleasure and I am higher on him than most. He showed out against USC and Oregon this year. He ran a 4.5 second 40 yard dash at the combine but seems faster on tape. He loves showing off his 40 inch vertical by hurdling his opponents. Great at attacking off-man. He effectively stems and breaks clean off that line to create separation. The unique vision and elusiveness he brings to the table make him a special prospect. He will likely bring more immediate impact as a specialist than as a pure route runner.
The Question marks for Aiyuk are much larger than with Lamb and Jeudy. He has only produced at a high level for one year. He needs to improve his physicality and braking ability in his routes. Some boom or bust potential here.
4. Henry Ruggs III: 5'11" 188 lbs
Player Comp: Tedd Ginn Jr.
Ruggs provides so much explosion he has to be in the top 5 of any WR ranking. His presence puts pressure on the defense to give help over the top at all times. His tape backs up the 4.27 40 time, 42 inch vertical, and 131 in broad jump. His impact reaches further than just his own production. He has 24 career touchdowns, consisting of 25% of his total career receptions. Unlike fellow speedster John Ross III, Ruggs has been durable during his college career. Ruggs III can provide versatility and production on jet sweeps, swing routes, crossing the formation on play action on arrow routes. Ruggs III future OC must take full advantage of his magnetic pull on the defense by putting him in motion, the backfield, flats, and crossing the formation, as well as, the obivous vertical stretch.
The questions marks are many for Henry Ruggs III. He lacks lateral quickness and "wiggle". He has inconsistent hands and must improve his releases in order to take full advantage of his speed. I can't help but feel like Ruggs presents the next explosive athlete trap. Sub 4.30 40, under 6 feet tall, lacks wiggle, and high end production. Ruggs was just the third leading receiver for his last two years at Alabama.
5. Justin Jefferson: 6'1" 202 lbs
Player Comp: Robert Woods
Jefferson was the receptions leader for LSU in 2018 and 2019. He exploded onto the scene in 2019 with 111 receptions and 18 touchdowns for the nation champion LSU Tigers. His elite concentration and contested catch ability combine with Jefferson's instincts make him a receptions monster for the foreseeable future. He shows the ability to change pace in a route and shield defenders when tracking the football. If Jefferson can add more technician type detail to his routes to go with his smooth and fluid athletic ability, his high volume of receptions will continue in the NFL. Jefferson dominated the best team on their schedule. In the games against Georgia, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, and Clemson he totaled 49 receptions for 734 yards and 9 touchdowns.
His question marks include, adjusting to an NFL system, loose route running, physicality, and ability to beat press man off the line.
6. Michael Pittman Jr: 6'4" 223 lbs
Player Comp: Marques Colston
Pittman makes his mark by winning at the catch point, particularly jump balls. He is physical to win underneath and presents problems for smaller CBs. He presents the size and speed combination to stretch the field vertically. A massive catch radius and sure hands lay the foundation for a reliable pass catcher for years to come. Michael Pittman Jr. provided major production last season with 101 receptions for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs including, 10 catches for 232 yards and a touchdown against a top Utah defensive secondary. He is a more than willing blocker. His toughness and character raise the floor for Pittman.
His question marks are centered around beating press man and creating separation in routes. Pittman lacks elite suddenness and burst off the line of scrimmage. I am a sucker for the 3 cone drill and he posted an solid time of 6.96 seconds.
7. Laviska Shenault Jr: 6'1" 227 lbs
Player Comp: Sammy Watkins
Despite only playing 9 games In 2018 Laviska accounted for over 33% of Colorado's total receiving production. Shenault Jr. brings serious versatility to the table. He averaged almost 7 yards a carry on 40 rushes including, 7 rushing touchdowns over his last two years at Colorado. I believe he could also add value in the return game. He only has two career returns (1 punt, 1 kick) but both went for over 50 yards including one touchdown. Shenault can line up at any WR position as well as in the backfield. He is a natural pass catcher and ball tracker with strength, speed, and quickness. His question marks include the lack of technical skills in his route running. He is raw against the press and isn't great at selling double moves and using counters to regain leverage. CBs that can match him athletically with force a lot of contested catches. Durability is far and away the number one concern. Without the injury concerns Shenault is a 1st round pick. Reminiscent of Watkins he seems to be constantly banged up, particularly with soft tissue and foot injuries.
Boom or Bust:
Denzel Mims- 6'3" 207 lbs
Mims was a star of the combine. He posted a 4.38 40 yard dash, 38.5 inch vertical, 131 inch broad, and 6.66 three cone drill. He has explosive vertical traits and great size. Mim's question marks include, inconsistent hands, lateral quickness, and a lack of polished route running.
Sleeper:
Van Jefferson- 6'1" 200 lbs
I like his ability to win in the slot. Jefferson is one of the best route runners in the draft class. He is savvy with his hands against press and within his routes.He draws a lot of penalties by baiting defenders to open their hips and then crosses their face. A lack of top level production and ability to win vertically are question marks.